Quantitative systems pharmacology model of erythropoiesis to simulate therapies targeting anemia due to chronic kidney disease.

Anemia induced by chronic kidney disease (CKD) has multiple underlying mechanistic causes and generally worsens as CKD progresses. Erythropoietin (EPO) is a key endogenous protein which increases the number of erythrocyte progenitors that mature into red blood cells that carry hemoglobin (Hb). Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEPO) in its native and re-engineered forms is used as a therapeutic to alleviate CKD-induced anemia by stimulating erythropoiesis. However, due to safety risks associated with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs), a new class of drugs, prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors (PHIs), has been developed. Instead of administering exogenous EPO, PHIs facilitate the accumulation of HIF-α, which results in the increased production of endogenous EPO. Clinical trials for ESAs and PHIs generally involve balancing decisions related to safety and efficacy by carefully evaluating the criteria for patient selection and adaptive trial design. To enable such decisions, we developed a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of erythropoiesis which captures key aspects of physiology and its disruption in CKD. Furthermore, CKD virtual populations of varying severities were developed, calibrated, and validated against public data. Such a model can be used to simulate alternative trial protocols while designing phase 3 clinical trials, as well as an asset for reverse translation in understanding emerging clinical data.