Development of a nomogram based on body composition analysis of quantitative computed tomography combined with clinical prognostic factors to predict disease-free survival after surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with gastric cancer.

Background: Patients with gastric cancer (GC) have a high recurrence rate after surgery. To predict disease-free survival (DFS), we investigated the value of body composition changes (BCCs) measured by quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in assessing the prognosis of patients with GC undergoing resection combined with adjuvant chemotherapy and to construct a nomogram model in combination with clinical prognostic factors (CPFs).

Methods: A retrospective study of 60 patients with GC between February 2015 and June 2019 was conducted. Pre- and posttreatment CT images of patients was used to measure bone mineral density (BMD), subcutaneous fat area (SFA), visceral fat area (VFA), total fat area (TFA), paravertebral muscle area (PMA), and the rate of BCC was calculated. CPFs such as maximum tumor diameter (MTD), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2), and Ki-67 were derived from postoperative pathological findings. Independent prognostic factors affecting DFS in GC were screened via univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to plot survival curves and compare the curves between groups, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curves to evaluate the efficacy of the nomogram.

Results: The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that ΔBMD [hazard ratio (HR): 4.577; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.483-14.132; P=0.008], ΔPMA (HR: 5.784; 95% CI: 1.251-26.740; P=0.025), HER2 (HR: 4.819; 95% CI: 2.201-10.549; P<0.001), and maximal tumor diameter (HR: 3.973; 95% CI: 1.893-8.337; P<0.001) were independent factors influencing DFS. ΔBMD, ΔSFA, ΔVFA, ΔTFA, and ΔPMA were -3.86%, -23.44%, -19.57%, -22.45%, and -5.94%, respectively. The prognostic model of BCCs combined with CPFs had the highest predictive performance. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated good clinical benefit for the prognostic nomogram. The concordance index of the prognostic nomogram was 0.814, and the area under the curve (AUC) of predicting 2- and 3-year DFS were 0.879 and 0.928, respectively. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram-predicted DFS aligned well with the actual DFS.

Conclusions: The prognostic nomogram combining BCCs and CPFs was able to reliably predict the DFS of patients with GC.