The association between phylogenetic lineage and the subclinical phenotype of pulmonary tuberculosis: A retrospective 2-cohort study.

Background: Subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is an asymptomatic disease state between established TB infection and symptomatic (clinical) TB disease. It is present in 20-25% of PTB patients in high-income countries. Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) genetic heterogeneity, and differential host immunological responses, have been implicated in its pathogenesis.

Methods: To determine the association between MTBC lineage and PTB disease phenotype, we used two retrospective cohorts of PTB patients in Canada and two independent lineage attribution methods (DNA fingerprinting and genome sequencing). The first cohort, Cohort 1, consisted of consecutively diagnosed PTB patients between 2014 and 2020. The second, Cohort 2, consisted of newly-arrived foreign-born PTB patients who either were or were not referred for post-landing medical surveillance between 2004 and 2017. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were sequentially fitted to both cohorts, adjusting for age, sex, disease type, drug resistance and HIV. Evolution of radiographic features was correlated to lineage in Cohort 2.

Findings: Cohort 1 and 2 included 874 (209 subclinical) and 111 (44 subclinical) patients, respectively. In both cohorts, subclinical patients were more likely than clinical patients to have relapse/retreatment disease, be smear-negative, have longer times-to-culture positivity and to harbor an ancestral MTBC lineage (Indo-Oceanic or Mycobacterium africanum). Relapse/retreatment disease and ancestral MTBC lineage were independent predictors of subclinical disease (ORs and 95% CIs in Cohort 1, 1.85 [1.07,3.28], p < 0.029 and 2.30 [1.66,3.18], p < 0.001, respectively, and Cohort 2, 5.74 [1.37-24.06], p < 0.017 and 3.21 (1.29,7.97], p < 0.012, respectively). The geographic distribution of Indo-Oceanic strains causing subclinical disease was uneven. Non-progressive lung disease was more common in patients infected with ancestral than modern lineages in Cohort 2, 56.0% vs 25.4%, p < 0.005.

Interpretation: MTBC lineage is a strong predictor of PTB disease phenotype. The genetic drivers of this association, and the relative contribution of other explanatory variables, are unknown.