Risk of dementia in older veterans with multiple sclerosis.

Background: While it is widely accepted that multiple sclerosis (MS) often causes cognitive dysfunction, it is thought that these cognitive symptoms rarely progress to dementia. However, this has not been thoroughly investigated. The objectives of this cohort study are to determine whether people with MS have an increased risk of dementia compared to the general population and to identify factors, such as geographic latitude, which may modify this association.

Methods: We studied data from a random sample of US veterans aged ≥ 55 years followed at Veterans Affairs Health Care Systems nationwide from 1999 to 2019. We identified all patients diagnosed with MS using ICD codes over a two-year baseline period. We then identified a comparison cohort of patients without MS matched 1:1 on sex, age, race, and first encounter date. We constructed Cox proportional hazards regression models to determine the association between MS and dementia while controlling for demographic factors and comorbidities, with additional models to examine subgroup effects. We used Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models accounting for competing risk of death to evaluate the sensitivity of the findings.

Results: The study included 4084 MS patients and a matched group of 4084 non-MS patients. Overall, patients had mean age 66, were 93.6% male, and 88.1% non-Hispanic White, with mean follow-up time 9.5 years (MS) and 10.8 years (non-MS). In unadjusted models, veterans with MS had greater risk of dementia compared to matched controls (cumulative incidence 16.7% vs 12.4%; Cox HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.41-1.78). The increased risk remained after adjustment for potential confounders (adjusted HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.39-1.76) and when considering death as a competing risk (Fine-Gray HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.21-1.53). The magnitude of the MS-dementia association increased with rising geographic latitude (North HR 1.86, 1.51-2.30; Central HR 1.61, 1.42-1.82; South HR 1.39, 1.18-1.64; interaction p = 0.04) and younger baseline age (interaction p<0.001).

Conclusions: Among older veterans with MS, risk of dementia diagnosis was higher compared to matched controls even after controlling for comorbidities. The risk difference was highest in northern regions and in younger patients. Clinicians caring for older MS patients should be aware of this risk and offer screening and treatment accordingly.