Non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels as a risk factor for short-term mortality in elderly Chinese: a large-scale, population-based cohort study.

Objectives: To explore the association between non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL) and mortality risk, both short-term and long-term, in Chinese people.

Design: A prospective cohort study.

Setting: The National Basic Public Health Service (BPHS) in China.

Participants: Including 621 164 elderly individuals around Hunan Province who underwent healthcare management receiving check-ups in China BPHS from 2010 to 2020.

Exclusion Criteria: (1) missing information on gender; (2) missing records of lipid screening; (3) missing information on key covariates; and (4) missing records of comorbidities (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, cancer.) PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The study's primary endpoint was all-cause and cause-specific mortality, sourced from Hunan's CDC(Center for Disease Control and Prevention)-operated National Mortality Surveillance System, tracking participants until 24 February 2021.

Results: 26 758 (4.3%) deaths were recorded, with a median follow-up of 0.83 years. Association between non-HDL and mortality was non-linear after multivariable adjustment, with the optimum concentration (OC) being 3.29 and 4.85 mmol/L. Compared with OC, the risk increased by 1.12-fold for non-HDL <3.29 mmol/L (HR: 1.12 (1.09 to 1.15)) and 1.08-fold for non-HDL ≥4.85 mmol/L (HR: 1.08 (1.02 to 1.13)) for all-cause mortality. Furthermore, there is also an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR : 1.10 (1.06 to 1.32) and HR : 1.07 (1.01 to 1.14)). However, cancer mortality risk was significantly increased only for non-HDL <3.29 mmol/L (HR: 1.11 (1.04 to 1.18)). Non-optimum concentration of non-HDL had significant effects on both the long-term and the short-term risk of mortality, especially for risks of mortality for all-cause (log HR:0 .086 (0.038 to 0.134)), cardiovascular (log HR:0 .082 (0.021 to 0.144)), and cancer (log HR:0 .187 (0.058 to 0.315)) within 3 months. A two-sided value of p <0.05 was considered to be statistically significant.

Conclusions: Non-HDL was non-linearly associated with the risk of mortality, and non-optimal concentrations of non-HDL significantly increased short-term mortality in elderly Chinese, which needs more attention for cardiovascular disease prevention.