Weather Conditions Drive the Damage Area Caused by Armillaria Root Disease in Coniferous Forests across Poland.

Armillaria root disease affects forests around the world. It occurs in many habitats and causes losses in the infested stands. Weather conditions are important factors for growth and development of Armillaria species. Yet, the relation between occurrence of damage caused by Armillaria disease and weather variables are still poorly understood. Thus, we used generalized linear mixed models to determine the relationship between weather conditions of current and previous year (temperature, precipitation and their deviation from long-term averages, air humidity and soil temperature) and the incidence of Armillaria-induced damage in young (up to 20 years old) and older (over 20 years old) coniferous stands in selected forest districts across Poland. We used unique data, gathered over the course of 23 years (1987-2009) on tree damage incidence from Armillaria root disease and meteorological parameters from the 24-year period (1986-2009) to reflect the dynamics of damage occurrence and weather conditions. Weather parameters were better predictors of damage caused by Armillaria disease in younger stands than in older ones. The strongest predictor was soil temperature, especially that of the previous year growing season and the current year spring. We found that temperature and precipitation of different seasons in previous year had more pronounced effect on the young stand area affected by Armillaria. Each stand's age class was characterized by a different set of meteorological parameters that explained the area of disease occurrence. Moreover, forest district was included in all models and thus, was an important variable in explaining the stand area affected by Armillaria.