Evidence of survival bias in the association between and age of ischemic stroke onset.

Large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) employing case-control study designs have now identified tens of loci associated with ischemic stroke (IS). As a complement to these studies, we performed GWAS in a case-only design to identify loci influencing age at onset (AAO) of ischemic stroke. Analyses were conducted in a Discovery cohort of 10,857 ischemic stroke cases using a linear regression framework. We meta-analyzed all SNPs with p-value < 1×10 in a sex-combined or sex-stratified analysis using summary data from two additional replication cohorts. In the women-only meta-analysis, we detected significant evidence for association of AAO with rs429358, an exonic variant in that encodes for the APOE-ϵ4 allele. Each copy of the rs429358:T>C allele was associated with a 1.29 years earlier stroke AOO (meta p-value = 2.48×10). This variant has previously been associated with increased mortality and ischemic stroke AAO. We hypothesized that the association with AAO may reflect a survival bias attributable to an age-related decline in mortality among APOE-ϵ4 carriers and have no association to stroke AAO per se. Using a simulation study, we found that a variant associated with overall mortality might indeed be detected with an AAO analysis. A variant with a two-fold increase on mortality risk would lead to an observed effect of AAO that is comparable to what we found. In conclusion, we detected a robust association of the locus with stroke AAO and provided simulations to suggest that this association may be unrelated to ischemic stroke per se but related to a general survival bias.