Modeling clinical malaria episodes in different ecological settings in Mali, 2018-2022.

Objectives: Following the scaling-up of malaria control strategies in Mali, understanding the changes in age-specific prevalence of infection and risk factors associated with remains necessary to determine new priorities to progress toward disease elimination. This study aimed to estimate the risk of clinical malaria using longitudinal data across three different transmission settings in Mali.

Methods: Cohort-based longitudinal studies were performed from April 2018 to December 2022. Incidence of malaria was measured through community health center-based passive case detection. Generalized estimation equation model was used to assess risk factors for clinical malaria.

Results: A total of 21,453 clinical presentations were reported from 4500 participants, mainly from July to November. Data shows a significant association between malaria episodes, sex, age group, season, and year. Women had lower risk, the risk of clinical episode increased with age up to 14 years then declined, and in both sites, the dry-season risk of clinical episode was significantly lower compared to the rainy season.

Conclusion: Determining factors associated with the occurrence of clinical malaria across different ecological settings across the country could help in the development of new strategies aiming to accelerate malaria elimination in an area where malaria transmission remains intense.