Exploring policy options to transform traditional dairy system in Ethiopia: A system dynamics approach.

Despite having a larger herd size and a favourable climate, Ethiopia generally lags behind developing nations in terms of both production and consumption of dairy products. For the purpose of finding and assessing ways to increase milk production by the traditional dairy system in Ethiopia's West Shewa zone, we integrated system dynamics (SD) modelling with a participatory model building approach. The main objective of the research was to develop SD model for West Shewa dairy value chain and apply it to assess ex-ante milk production and dairy household profit impacts of various interventions. The interventions evaluated in the study include enhanced urea treatment of crops residue, increased production of improved feed, and investment in more dairy cows. Analysis reveals that policies targeting feed development can boost milk production and household profits above the baseline. They also lead to a higher seasonal variability in milk production. Through the feed development strategy producers can achieve a 70 % and 735 % increase in milk production and household profit, respectively. However, the implementation of improved feed policy still leaves a gap in the average feed protein requirement of a dairy cattle in the study area. On the other hand, policy of increasing cow herd is not profitable. In addition, improved feed policy in drought results in reduced herd size, yet it leads to a higher milk output and household profit. Hence, with the feed development options explored in this study, increasing herd size is not a recommended course of action for improvement of the West Shewa dairy value chain. Therefore, future research should explore for further enhancement of the supply as well as quality of feed resources and the potential of investment in improved breeds.