Weather influences survival probability in two coexisting mammals directly and indirectly via competitive asymmetry.

Ecologists have studied the role of interspecific competition in structuring ecological communities for decades. Differential weather effects on animal competitors may be a particularly important factor contributing to the outcome of competitive interactions, though few studies have tested this hypothesis in free-ranging animals. Specifically, weather might influence competitive dynamics by altering competitor densities and/or per-capita competitive effects on demographic vital rates. We used a 9-year data set of marked individuals to test for direct and interactive effects of weather and competitor density on survival probability in two coexisting mammalian congeners: Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus) and northern Idaho ground squirrels (Urocitellus brunneus). Ambient temperature and precipitation influenced survival probability in both species, but the effects of weather differed between the two species. Moreover, density of the larger Columbian ground squirrel negatively impacted survival probability in the smaller northern Idaho ground squirrel (but not vice versa), and the strength of the negative effect was exacerbated by precipitation. That is, cooler, wetter conditions benefited the larger competitor to the detriment of the smaller species. Our results suggest weather-driven environmental variation influences the competitive equilibrium between ecologically similar mammals of differential body size. Whether future climate change leads to the competitive exclusion of either species will likely depend on the mechanism(s) explaining the coexistence of these competing species. Divergent body size and, hence, differences in thermal tolerance and giving up densities offer potential explanations for the weather-dependent competitive asymmetry we documented, especially if the larger species competitively excludes the smaller species from habitat patches of shared preference via interference.