Modelling of soil environmental quality and early warning of integrated ecological risk.

The knowledge of dynamic trend in soil heavy metal contamination and associated risk is important for soil pollution prevention, safe utilization and early warning of soil environmental quality and ecological risk. In this study, a modified integrated risk index (NIRI) was adopted to evaluate ecological risk in agricultural soil in Wenzhou with 70 samples, which is located in the southeast of China. In addition, two scenarios with different metal fluxes (optimistic and default scenario) were constructed to predict future dynamic trend of metal concentrations. Results showed the agricultural soil was mainly contaminated by Cd and Pb. The NIRI indicated moderate to considerable risk in most sites and Cd posed the greatest contribution to NIRI value. Besides, higher risk was determined in paddy soil than that in vegetable. Scenario simulation results revealed general declining trend in optimistic scenario while increasing trend in default scenario for metal concentration. However, exceedance varied with prediction period, soil types and metals. Ecological risk probability showed similar trend with metal concentration, indicating significant shift to higher risk level in default scenario while insignificant decrease in optimistic scenario. The proposed scenario simulation results provide reference to support soil quality improvement and risk management.