Systematic review of early warning signs of relapse and behavioural antecedents of symptom worsening in people living with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

Background: Identification of the early warning signs (EWS) of relapse is key to relapse prevention in schizophrenia spectrum disorders, however, limitations to their precision have been reported. Substantial methodological innovations have recently been applied to the prediction of psychotic relapse and to individual psychotic symptoms. However, there has been no systematic review that has integrated findings across these two related outcomes and no systematic review of EWS of relapse for a decade.

Method: We conducted a systematic review of EWS of psychotic relapse and the behavioural antecedents of worsening psychotic symptoms. Traditional EWS and ecological momentary assessment/intervention studies were included. We completed meta-analyses of the pooled sensitivity and specificity of EWS in predicting relapse, and for the prediction of relapse from individual symptoms.

Results: Seventy two studies were identified including 6903 participants. Sleep, mood, and suspiciousness, emerged as predictors of worsening symptoms. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of EWS in predicting psychotic relapse was 71% and 64% (AUC value = 0.72). There was a large pooled-effect size for the model predicting relapse from individual symptom which did not reach statistical significance (d = 0.81, 95%CIs = -0.01, 1.63).

Conclusions: Important methodological advancements in the prediction of psychotic relapse in schizophrenia spectrum disorders are evident with improvements in the precision of prediction. Further efforts are required to translate these advances into effective clinical innovations.