Specialize Early and Select Late: Performance Trajectories of World-Class Finalists and International- and National-Class Swimmers.

Purpose: To investigate performance progression from early-junior to peak performance age and compare variety in race distances and swimming strokes between swimmers of various performance levels.

Methods: Using a longitudinal data analysis and between-groups comparisons 306,165 annual best times of male swimmers (N = 3897) were used to establish a ranking based on annual best times at peak performance age. Individual performance trajectories were retrospectively analyzed to compare distance and stroke variety. Performances of world-class finalists and international- and national-class swimmers (swimming points: 886 [30], 793 [28], and 698 [28], respectively) were compared across 5 age groups-13-14, 15-16, 17-18, 19-20, and 21+ years-using a 2-way analysis of variance with repeated measures.

Results: World-class finalists are not significantly faster than international-class swimmers up to the 17- to 18-year age group (F2|774 = 65, P < .001, ηp2=.14) but specialize in short- or long-distance races at a younger age. World-class breaststroke finalists show faster breaststroke times compared to their performance in other swimming strokes from an early age (P < .05), while world-class freestyle and individual medley finalists show less significant differences to their performance in other swimming strokes.

Conclusions: While federation officials should aim for late talent selection, that is, not before the 17- to 18-year age group, coaches should aim to identify swimmers' preferred race distances early on. However, the required stroke variety seems to be specific for each swimming stroke. Breaststroke swimmers could aim for early and strong specialization, while freestyle and individual medley swimmers could maintain large and very large stroke variety, respectively.