Preoperative CT imaging as a tool to predict incisional hernia outcomes following abdominal wall reconstruction: A retrospective cohort analysis.

Introduction: Ventral wall hernia often causes significant morbidity and requires complex abdominal wall reconstruction (AWR). This study aims to determine whether subcutaneous abdominal fat thickness (AFT) measured with preoperative CT scans could predict postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing AWR.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on all patients who underwent AWR at our institution between 2009 and 2021, with a minimum follow-up of 12 months. Using preoperative CT scans, AFT was measured at the xiphoid process, umbilicus, and pubic tubercle, as well as the hernia dimensions. Demographic, operative, and surgical outcome data were also collected and analyzed using statistical tests.

Results: The results showed that 9 of 101 patients (8.9%) experienced hernia recurrence. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of hernia recurrence (p < 0.001) with a predictive odds ratio (OR) of 18.27 (p = 0.041). Increased AFT at the xiphoid (p = 0.005), umbilicus (p < 0.001), and pubic tubercle (p < 0.001) were also associated with hernia recurrence and risk of infection. Only AFT at the pubic tubercle reached significance in the regression model predicting recurrence (OR=1.10; p = 0.030) and infection (OR=1.04; p = 0.021). A cut-off value of 67 mm was associated with a positive predictive value of 42.14% (sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 91%). Hernia defect area was not associated with risk of recurrence or infection.

Conclusions: Smoking and increased AFT at the pubic tubercle are significant predictive factors for recurrence and infection in patients undergoing AWR, and preoperative optimization should focus on reducing these factors.