The ypT may better predict the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy than tumor regression grade in locally advanced rectal cancer patients diagnosed ypT1-4N0.

Purpose: This study aimed to assess the impact of ypT stage and tumor regression grade (TRG) on the long-term prognosis of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) stage ypT1-4N0 after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT).

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 585 patients with histologically diagnosed middle-low LARC (cT3-4 or cN + by pelvic MRI) from 2014 to 2019. All patients underwent NCRT, followed by total mesorectal excision. Disease-free survival (DFS) rates were compared among patients with different ypT stages and TRGs by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. The chi-square test was used to analyze the relationship between clinicopathological or therapeutic factors and ypT stage.

Results: The median follow-up was 35.8 months (range 2.8-71.8 months). The 3-year DFS was 79.5%. A better 3-year DFS was achieved in patients with a pathologic complete response (94.0% vs. 74.3%, p < 0.001) and those in the ypT0-2 (86.5% vs. 66.6%, p < 0.001), ypN0 (85.0% vs. 60.2%, p < 0.001), and TRG0 + 1 (83.1% vs. 73.0%, p = 0.004) subgroups. A total of 309 patients (52.8%) achieved stage ypT1-4N0 after surgery. Among these patients, the ypT1-2N0 subgroup achieved a significantly higher 3-year DFS than the ypT3-4N0 subgroup (85.4% vs. 72.8%, p = 0.018); in contrast, the 3-year DFS did not significantly differ between the TRG1 and TRG2 + 3 subgroups (79.9% vs. 81.1%, p = 0.833). In the ypT1-2N0 or ypT3-4N0 subgroup, different TRG had no significant effect on failure patterns.

Conclusions: For LARC patients with a ypT1-4N0 status after NCRT, ypT stage may be a more effective predictor of long-term prognosis than TRG.