Adding 6-month parameters for the prediction of kidney prognosis in ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis.

Background: Antineutrophil-cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) with kidney involvement (AAV-GN) frequently evolves to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) despite aggressive immunosuppressive treatment. Several risk scores have been used to assess renal prognosis. We aimed to determine whether kidney function and markers of AAV-GN activity after 6 months could improve the prediction of ESKD.

Methods: This retrospective and observational study included adult patients with AAV-GN recruited from six French nephrology centers (including from the Maine-Anjou AAV registry). The primary outcome was kidney survival. Analyses were conducted in the whole population and in a sub-population that did not develop ESKD early in the course of the disease.

Results: When considering the 102 patients with all data available at diagnosis, Berden classification and Renal Risk Score (RRS) were not found to be better than kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)] alone at predicting ESKD (C-index = 0.70, 0.79, 0.82, respectively). Multivariables models did not indicate an improved prognostic value when compared with eGFR alone.When considering the 93 patients with all data available at 6 months, eGFR outperformed Berden classification and RRS (C-index = 0.88, 0.62, 0.69, respectively) to predict ESKD. RRS performed better when it was updated with the eGFR at 6 months instead of the baseline eGFR. While 6-month proteinuria was associated with ESKD and improved ESKD prediction, hematuria and serological remission did not.

Conclusion: This work suggests the benefit of the reassessment of the kidney prognosis 6 months after AAV-GN diagnosis. Kidney function at this time remains the most reliable for predicting kidney outcome. Of the markers tested, persistent proteinuria at 6 months was the only one to slightly improve the prediction of ESKD.