Low-dose CT screening among never-smokers with or without a family history of lung cancer in Taiwan: a prospective cohort study.

Background: In Taiwan, lung cancers occur predominantly in never-smokers, of whom nearly 60% have stage IV disease at diagnosis. We aimed to assess the efficacy of low-dose CT (LDCT) screening among never-smokers, who had other risk factors for lung cancer.

Methods: The Taiwan Lung Cancer Screening in Never-Smoker Trial (TALENT) was a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study done at 17 tertiary medical centres in Taiwan. Eligible individuals had negative chest radiography, were aged 55-75 years, had never smoked or had smoked fewer than 10 pack-years and stopped smoking for more than 15 years (self-report), and had one of the following risk factors: a family history of lung cancer; passive smoke exposure; a history of pulmonary tuberculosis or chronic obstructive pulmonary disorders; a cooking index of 110 or higher; or cooking without using ventilation. Eligible participants underwent LDCT at baseline, then annually for 2 years, and then every 2 years up to 6 years thereafter, with follow-up assessments at each LDCT scan (ie, total follow-up of 8 years). A positive scan was defined as a solid or part-solid nodule larger than 6 mm in mean diameter or a pure ground-glass nodule larger than 5 mm in mean diameter. Lung cancer was diagnosed through invasive procedures, such as image-guided aspiration or biopsy or surgery. Here, we report the results of 1-year follow-up after LDCT screening at baseline. The primary outcome was lung cancer detection rate. The p value for detection rates was estimated by the χ test. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between lung cancer incidence and each risk factor. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of LDCT screening were also assessed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02611570, and is ongoing.

Findings: Between Dec 1, 2015, and July 31, 2019, 12 011 participants (8868 females) were enrolled, of whom 6009 had a family history of lung cancer. Among 12 011 LDCT scans done at baseline, 2094 (17·4%) were positive. Lung cancer was diagnosed in 318 (2·6%) of 12 011 participants (257 [2·1%] participants had invasive lung cancer and 61 [0·5%] had adenocarcinomas in situ). 317 of 318 participants had adenocarcinoma and 246 (77·4%) of 318 had stage I disease. The prevalence of invasive lung cancer was higher among participants with a family history of lung cancer (161 [2·7%] of 6009 participants) than in those without (96 [1·6%] of 6002 participants). In participants with a family history of lung cancer, the detection rate of invasive lung cancer increased significantly with age, whereas the detection rate of adenocarcinoma in situ remained stable. In multivariable analysis, female sex, a family history of lung cancer, and age older than 60 years were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer and invasive lung cancer; passive smoke exposure, cumulative exposure to cooking, cooking without ventilation, and a previous history of chronic lung diseases were not associated with lung cancer, even after stratification by family history of lung cancer. In participants with a family history of lung cancer, the higher the number of first-degree relatives affected, the higher the risk of lung cancer; participants whose mother or sibling had lung cancer were also at an increased risk. A positive LDCT scan had 92·1% sensitivity, 84·6% specificity, a PPV of 14·0%, and a NPV of 99·7% for lung cancer diagnosis.

Interpretation: TALENT had a high invasive lung cancer detection rate at 1 year after baseline LDCT scan. Overdiagnosis could have occurred, especially in participants diagnosed with adenocarcinoma in situ. In individuals who do not smoke, our findings suggest that a family history of lung cancer among first-degree relatives significantly increases the risk of lung cancer as well as the rate of invasive lung cancer with increasing age. Further research on risk factors for lung cancer in this population is needed, particularly for those without a family history of lung cancer.

Funding: Ministry of Health and Welfare of Taiwan.