The impact of long-term PM exposure on all-cause mortality and its interaction with BMI: A nationwide prospective cohort study in China.

Background: China has a serious air pollution problem and a high prevalence of obesity. The interaction between the two and its impact on all-cause mortality is a public health issue of great concern.

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm (PM) and all-cause mortality, as well as the interaction effect of body mass index (BMI) in the association.

Methods: A total of 33,087 participants from 162 counties in 25 provinces in China were included, with annual average PM exposure being estimated based on the county address. The PM-mortality relation was evaluated using the time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, with the dose-response relationship being fitted using the penalized splines. Besides, the potential interaction effect of BMI in the PM-mortality relation was evaluated.

Results: The incidence of all-cause deaths was 76.99 per 10,000 person-years over a median of 8.2 years of follow-up. After controlling for potential confounders, the PM-mortality relation was approximately J-shaped. The full-adjustment analysis observed the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality was 1.114 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.017-1.220] corresponding to a 10 μg/m rise in PM concentration. Further stratified analyses suggested the adverse effects of PM might be more pronounced among the underweight.

Discussion: Higher PM concentrations were associated with an increase in all-cause mortality. The BMI might further alter the relation, and the underweight population was the sensitive subgroup of the population that needed to be protected.