Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men.

Importance: Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Objectives: To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals.

Design, Setting, And Participants: The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV. Analyses were completed from July 2021 to October 2023.

Intervention: The study simulated status quo care using race-specific estimates: age at infection, time to diagnosis, receipt of care, and virologic suppression. The study next projected the outcomes of attaining equity-centered vs non-equity-centered goals by simulating 2 equal improvements in care goals: (10-point increased receipt of care and 5-point increased virologic suppression), 3 equity-centered goals (annual HIV testing, 95% receiving HIV care, and 95% virologic suppression) and lastly, an equitable care continuum that achieves annual HIV testing, 95% receiving care, and 95% virologic suppression in Black MSM and White MSM. One-way and multiway sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Mean age at death and YLG.

Results: In the simulated cohort, the mean (SD) age at HIV infection was 27.0 (10.8) years for Black MSM and 35.5 (13.6) years for White MSM. In status quo, mean age at death would be 68.8 years for Black MSM and 75.6 years for White MSM. The equal improvements in care goals would result in 0.5 YLG for Black MSM and 0.5 to 0.9 YLG for White MSM. Achieving any 1 equity-centered goal would result in 0.5 to 1.7 YLG for Black MSM and 0.4 to 1.3 YLG for White MSM. With an equitable care continuum compared with the nationally reported status quo, Black MSM and White MSM would gain 3.5 and 2.1 life-years, respectively. If the status quo HIV testing was every 6 years with 75% retained in care and 75% virologically suppressed, Black MSM would gain 4.2 life-years with an equitable care continuum.

Conclusions And Relevance: In this simulation modeling study of HIV care goals, equal improvements in HIV care for Black and White MSM maintained or worsened inequities. These results suggest that equity-centered goals for the HIV care continuum are critical to mitigate long-standing inequities in HIV outcomes.