Defining Pathologic Upstaging in cT1b Esophageal Cancer: Should We Consider Neoadjuvant Therapy?

Introduction: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (NCRT) for cT1b esophageal cancer is not recommended despite the risk of pathologic upstaging with increased depth of penetration. We aimed to (1) define the rate of and factors associated with pathologic upstaging, (2) describe current trends in treatments, and (3) compare overall survival (OS) with and without NCRT for surgically resected cT1b lesions.

Methods: We used the 2020 National Cancer Database to identify patients with cT1b N0 esophageal cancer with or without pathologic upstaging who underwent removal of their tumor. We built multivariable logistic regression models to assess factors associated with pathologic upstaging. Survival was compared using log-rank analysis and modeled using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions.

Results: Out of 1106 patients with cT1b esophageal cancer, 17.3% (N = 191) had pathologic upstaging. A higher tumor grade (P = 0.002), greater tumor size (P < 0.001), and presence of lympho-vascular invasion (P < 0.001) were associated with pathologic upstaging. 8.0% (N = 114) of patients were treated with NCRT. Five-y OS was 49.4% for patients who received NCRT compared to 67.2% for upfront esophagectomy (P < 0.05). Pathologic upstaging was associated with decreased OS (pathologic upstaging 43.7% versus no pathologic upstaging 67.7%) (hazard ratio 2.12 [95% confidence interval, 1.70-2.65; P < 0.001]). Compared to esophagectomy, endoscopic local tumor excision was associated with a decreased OS (hazard ratio 1.50 [95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.89; P = 0.001]).

Conclusions: Pathologic upstaging of cT1b lesions is associated with decreased OS. Esophagectomy is associated with a survival benefit over endoscopic local tumor excision for these lesions. NCRT is not associated with an increase in OS in cT1b lesions compared to upfront esophagectomy.