Shifts in population density centers of a hibernating mammal driven by conflicting effects of climate change and disease.

Populations wax and wane over time in response to an organism's interactions with abiotic and biotic forces. Numerous studies demonstrate that fluctuations in local populations can lead to shifts in relative population densities across the geographic range of a species over time. Fewer studies attempt to disentangle the causes of such shifts. Over four decades (1983-2022), we monitored populations of hibernating Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) in two areas separated by ~110 km. The number of bats hibernating in the northern area increased from 1983 to 2011, while populations in the southern area remained relatively constant. We used simulation models and long-term weather data to demonstrate the duration of time bats must rely on stored fat during hibernation has decreased in both areas over that period, but at a faster rate in the northern area. Likewise, increasing autumn and spring temperatures shortened the periods of sporadic prey (flying insect) availability at the beginning and end of hibernation. Climate change thus increased the viability of northern hibernacula for an increasing number of bats by decreasing energetic costs of hibernation. Then in 2011, white-nose syndrome (WNS), a disease of hibernating bats that increases energetic costs of hibernation, was detected in the area. From 2011 to 2022, the population rapidly decreased in the northern area and increased in the southern area, completely reversing the northerly shift in population densities associated with climate change. Energy balance during hibernation is the singular link explaining the northerly shift under a changing climate and the southerly shift in response to a novel disease. Continued population persistence suggests that bats may mitigate many impacts of WNS by hibernating farther south, where insects are available longer each year.