Machine learning-based approach for predicting low birth weight.

Background: Low birth weight (LBW) has been linked to infant mortality. Predicting LBW is a valuable preventative tool and predictor of newborn health risks. The current study employed a machine learning model to predict LBW.

Methods: This study implemented predictive LBW models based on the data obtained from the "Iranian Maternal and Neonatal Network (IMaN Net)" from January 2020 to January 2022. Women with singleton pregnancies above the gestational age of 24 weeks were included. Exclusion criteria included multiple pregnancies and fetal anomalies. A predictive model was built using eight statistical learning models (logistic regression, decision tree classification, random forest classification, deep learning feedforward, extreme gradient boost model, light gradient boost model, support vector machine, and permutation feature classification with k-nearest neighbors). Expert opinion and prior observational cohorts were used to select candidate LBW predictors for all models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score were measured to evaluate their diagnostic performance.

Results: We found 1280 women with a recorded LBW out of 8853 deliveries, for a frequency of 14.5%. Deep learning (AUROC: 0.86), random forest classification (AUROC: 0.79), and extreme gradient boost classification (AUROC: 0.79) all have higher AUROC and perform better than others. When the other performance parameters of the models mentioned above with higher AUROC were compared, the extreme gradient boost model was the best model to predict LBW with an accuracy of 0.79, precision of 0.87, recall of 0.69, and F1 score of 0.77. According to the feature importance rank, gestational age and prior history of LBW were the top critical predictors.

Conclusions: Although this study found that the extreme gradient boost model performed well in predicting LBW, more research is needed to make a better conclusion on the performance of ML models in predicting LBW.