Climate zoning: identifying suitable regions for the occurrence of Alternaria Brown spot in tangerine trees in Brazil.

Background: Brazilian citrus farming has been migrating to nontraditional citrus-growing regions, which can be considered a challenge for citrus growers, as not all these areas are suitable for tangerine cultivation. Thus, the mapping of regions exhibiting favorable climatic conditions for Alternaria brown spot has become crucial in the selection of appropriate locations for the establishment of new orchards. This mapping enables the implementation of an avoidance strategy, which entails steering clear of areas where the disease is prevalent, aligning with fundamental principles of disease control.

Results: Thus, this study seeks to zone areas with high and low climatic favorability for the occurrence of Alternaria brown spot in tangerine trees in Brazil. Historical climate data series from the NASA-POWER database were used for all municipalities in Brazil. Agrometeorological variables used to determine the development of Alternaria brown spot were average monthly air temperature (Tmean) and duration of leaf wetness period (LWD). Areas were considered unsuitable climatically when Tmean was <17 °C or >33 °C, relatively suitable when Tmean was between 13 °C and 33 °C and LWD <10%, and climatically suitable when Tmean was between 13 °C and 33 °C and LWD >10%. The states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul showed greater thermal amplitude within months and throughout the year. The southern region of the country has harsher winters, with minimum temperatures below 15 °C, which is unfavorable for the disease incidence.

Conclusion: The states with the greatest favorability for Alternaria brown spot were Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul, mainly from May to September. Rio Grande do Sul was the state in this region that showed the greatest favorability, as a consequence of leaf wetness exceeding 10 h. The main tangerine-producing regions in Brazil, including the southern part of Minas Gerais, the state of São Paulo and the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre, were mostly classified as relatively favorable areas for the occurrence of Alternaria brown spot. It is recommended that when establishing new tangerine orchards, regions with lower favorability for the occurrence of Alternaria brown spot, such as the North and Central-West regions of Brazil, particularly the states of Amazonas, Pará and Mato Grosso, should be selected. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.