Trends and risk factors of diabetes and prediabetes in US adolescents, 1999-2020.

Aims: To assess the national trends in prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes and their major risk factors among adolescents in the US.

Methods: We analyzed data on 6,936 adolescents aged 12 to 19 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) between 1999 and 2020. Diabetes was defined by self-reported physician-diagnosis (diagnosed) and by fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c levels (undiagnosed). Prediabetes was identified by fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c levels. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations of major risk factors with diabetes and prediabetes.

Results: The prevalence of prediabetes in adolescents increased from 11.5% in 1999-2002 to 36.3% in 2015-2020. The prevalence of diabetes increased from 0.82% (0.62% of diagnosed and 0.20% of undiagnosed) in 1999-2002 to 1.14% (0.76% of diagnosed and 0.38% of undiagnosed) in 2015-2020, but the increase was not statistically significant (P value = 0.69). Obesity was significantly associated with higher odds of diabetes and prediabetes while boys and Mexican Americans had a significantly higher risk of prediabetes than their counterparts.

Conclusions: The prevalence of prediabetes among adolescents in the US has more than tripled from 1999 to 2020. Obese adolescents are at the greatest risk for diabetes and prediabetes.