Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain: Updated Information (1982-2021) and Predictions up to 2046.

Background: Patterns of lung cancer (LC) mortality are important for planning health services and resource management.

Objectives: We aimed to provide updated information (1982-2021) and project (LC) mortality rates in Spain (2022-2046).

Method: We analysed data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute about mortality in LC (1982-2021), and we made predictions for the period 2022-2046.

Results: In 2021, a total of 22,413 people died of LC, and for the period 2042-2046, the projected annual average was 25,549 deaths. In males, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) (overall) after an initial period of increase (1982-1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (-1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future (-1.9% per year during the period 2022-2046), although the projected decline is slightly higher (-2.0% during the period 2022-2046). In men, ASMR (all ages) after an initial period of increase (1982-1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (-1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future during the period 2022-2046. In women, both the overall and truncated rates (35-64) increase during the period 1982-2021 (4.1% and 6.0% per year, respectively), and projected rates showed that both will decrease during the period 2022-2046, although more markedly in the truncated rates (-1.9% per year) than in the overall rates (-0.5% per year).

Conclusions: Our projections show the magnitude of a steady upward trend in LC mortality among women in Spain that appears to be beginning to reverse from the current decade (similar to that observed for incidence).