Role of Charlson comorbidity index in predicting the ICU admission in patients with thoracic aortic aneurysm undergoing surgery.

Objectives: This study aimed to explore the value of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) in predicting ICU admission in patients with aortic aneurysm (AA).

Methods: The clinical data of patients were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database. The association between CCI and ICU admission was explored by restricted cubic spline (RCS), threshold effect analysis, generalized linear model, logistic regression, interaction, and mediation analyses. Its clinical value was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), DeLong's test, and net reclassification index (NRI) analyses.

Results: The ICU admission was significantly associated with the thoracic AA (TAA), unruptured status, and surgery status. Therefore, 288 candidate patients with unruptured TAA who received surgery were enrolled in the further analysis. We found that CCI was independently associated with the ICU admission of candidates (P = 0.005). Further, their nonlinear relationship was observed (adjusted P = 0.008), and a significant turning point of 6 was identified. The CCI had a favorable performance in predicting ICU admission (area under curve = 0.728) and achieved a better clinical net benefit. New models based on CCI significantly improved the accuracy of prediction. Besides the importance of CCI in ICU admission, CCI also exerted important interaction effect (rather than mediating effects) on the association of other variables (such as age and blood variables) with ICU admission requirements (all P < 0.05).

Conclusions: The CCI is an important predictor of ICU admission after surgery in patients with unruptured TAA.