Background: Rising incidence of papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMC) has raised concerns for overdiagnosis. Utility of the American Thyroid Association Risk Stratification System (ATA-RSS) 2015 in predicting risk of disease recurrence in patients with PTMC was assessed.
Methods: Electronic health records of patients who underwent total thyroidectomy were queried. ATA-RSS 2015 risk stratification was performed on those with PTMC, and validity for predicting disease recurrence was calculated.
Results: With 10-year median follow up, recurrence was higher in PTMC patients with high/intermediate vs low ATA risk (33 % vs 4 %, p = 0.002). Sensitivity of ATA-RSS for detecting recurrence was 60 %, specificity 90 %, PPV 33.3 %, NPV 96.6 %, and accuracy 88 %. When microscopic extrathyroidal extension (ETE) was excluded as an intermediate risk criterion, PPV improved to 50 % and accuracy improved to 92.5 % CONCLUSIONS: ATA-RSS 2015 predicts recurrence in PTMC with high NPV but low PPV. Exclusion of microscopic ETE improved PPV, which may help prevent overtreatment.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amjsurg.2023.11.003 | DOI Listing |
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