Economic Growth and Childhood Malnutrition in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Importance: Economic growth may reduce childhood malnutrition through improvements of several contributing factors, but the empirical evidence is mixed. Identifying the most important factors that contribute to child malnutrition and their associations with economic growth can inform decision-making about targeted investments to improve children's health.

Objective: To assess the associations between economic growth and malnutrition, contributing factors and malnutrition, and economic growth and contributing factors of malnutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Design, Setting, And Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from 239 Demographic and Health Surveys from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2021. Observations included 1 138 568 children aged 0 to 35 months with valid anthropometric measures and information on contributing factors of malnutrition from 58 LMICs. Data were analyzed from May 20, 2022, to February 16, 2023.

Exposure: National per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) was used as a proxy for economic growth.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Six measures of childhood malnutrition were constructed: stunting (height-for-age z score <-2), underweight (weight-for-age z score <-2), wasting (weight-for-height z score <-2), overweight (weight-for-height z score >2), obesity (weight-for-height z score >3), and dietary diversity failure (consumption of less than 5 of 8 different food groups in the past 24 hours). Eighteen contributing factors of malnutrition were constructed, of which 10 were underlying determinants (eg, access to improved sanitation) and 8 were immediate determinants (eg, breastfeeding initiation).

Results: A total of 1 138 568 children (mean [SD] age, 17.14 [10.26] months; 579 589 [50.9%] boys and 558 979 [49.1%] girls) were included in the analysis. Of these, 27.3% (95% CI, 27.2%-27.4%) had stunting; 25.7% (95% CI, 25.6%-25.8%), underweight; 11.2% (95% CI, 11.1%-11.2%), wasting; 3.8% (95% CI, 3.7%-3.8%), overweight; 1.1% (95% CI, 1.1%-1.1%), obesity; and 79.8% (95% CI, 79.7%-79.9%), dietary diversity failure. Per-capita GDP was weakly associated with childhood malnutrition. The odds ratios associated with a 5% increase in per-capita GDP were 0.99 (95% CI, 0.99-1.00) for stunting, 1.01 (95% CI, 1.00-1.01) for wasting, 1.00 (95% CI, 1.00-1.00) for underweight, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.98-0.98) for overweight, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97-0.98) for obesity, and 1.03 (95% CI, 1.01-1.04) for dietary diversity failure. Although strong associations were found between many contributing factors and most outcomes for malnutrition, associations identified between per-capita GDP and these contributing factors themselves were ambiguous.

Conclusions And Relevance: In this multicountry cross-sectional study, economic growth was weakly associated with childhood malnutrition and several contributing factors. To reduce child malnutrition, economic growth may need to be accompanied by more targeted investments to improve contributing factors that are strongly associated with child malnutrition, such as maternal health and education.