Acute renal injury after aortic arch reconstruction with cardiopulmonary bypass for children: prediction models by machine learning of a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Acute renal injury (AKI) after aortic arch reconstruction with cardiopulmonary bypass leads to injury of multiple organs and increases perioperative mortality. The study was performed to explore risk factors for AKI. We aim to develop a prediction model that can be used to accurately predict AKI through machine learning (ML).

Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 134 patients with aortic arch reconstruction with cardiopulmonary bypass who were treated at our hospital from January 2002 to January 2022. Risk factors for AKI were compositive and were evaluated with comprehensive analyses. Six artificial intelligence (AI) models were used for machine learning to build prediction models and to screen out the best model to predict AKI.

Results: Weight, eGFR, cyanosis, PDA, newborn birth and duration of renal ischemia were closely related to AKI. By integrating the results of the training cohort and validation cohort, we finally confirmed that the logistic regression model was the most stable model among all the models, and the logistic regression model showed good discrimination, calibration and clinical practicability. Based on 6 independent factors, the dynamic nomogram can be used as a predictive tool for clinical application.

Conclusions: DHCA could be considered in aortic arch reconstruction if additional perfusion of lower body were not performed especially when renal ischemia is greater than 30 min. Machine Learning models should be developed for early recognition of AKI.

Trial Registration: ChiCTR, ChiCTR2200060552. Registered 4 june 2022.