Shift in algal blooms from micro- to macroalgae around China with increasing eutrophication and climate change.

Blooms of microalgal red tides and macroalgae (e.g., green and golden tides caused by Ulva and Sargassum) have caused widespread problems around China in recent years, but there is uncertainty around what triggers these blooms and how they interact. Here, we use 30 years of monitoring data to help answer these questions, focusing on the four main species of microalgae Prorocentrum donghaiense, Karenia mikimotoi, Noctiluca scintillans, and Skeletonema costatum) associated with red tides in the region. The frequency of red tides increased from 1991 to 2003 and then decreased until 2020, with S. costatum red tides exhibiting the highest rate of decrease. Green tides started to occur around China in 1999 and the frequency of green tides has since been on the increase. Golden tides were first reported to occur around China in 2012. The frequency of macroalgal blooms has a negative linear relationship with the frequency and coverage of red tides around China, and a positive correlation with total nitrogen and phosphorus loads as well as with atmospheric CO and sea surface temperature (SST). Increased outbreaks of macroalgal blooms are very likely due to worsening levels of eutrophication, combined with rising CO and SST, which contribute to the reduced frequency of red tides. The increasing grazing rate of microzooplankton also results in the decline in areas affected by red tides. This study shows a clear shift of algal blooms from microalgae to macroalgae around China over the past 30 years driven by the combination of eutrophication, climate change, and grazing stress, indicating a fundamental change in coastal systems in the region.