Surveillance, epidemiology, and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of enterovirus infections in Nanchang, China, 2010-2022.

Introduction: Pathogen spectrum of Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has substantially changed in the past decade in China. Growing evidence has indicated that anti-COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can support control of various infectious diseases, including intestinal diseases.

Methods: In this study, HFMD cases were enrolled from sentinel hospitals of Nanchang, Jiangxi province, and enteroviruses were genotyped using specific real time RT-PCR. We systematically characterized the epidemiology of HFMD based on the continuous molecular surveillance and estimated the impact of COVID-19 intervention on HFMD incidence using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.

Results: A total of 10247 HFMD cases were included during 2010-2022, of which 6121 enterovirus (EV)-positive cases (59.7%) were identified by real-time RT-PCR. Over 80% cases were associated with EV-A71 and coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) during 2010-2012, while the type distribution significantly changed as CVA6 emerged to be dominant, accounting for 22.6%-59.6% during 2013-2022. It was observed that the prevalence patterns of EV-A71 and CVA16 were similar and both of them peaked in the second quarter and then leveled off. However, CVA6 was generally prevalent around the fourth quarter, demonstrating a staggered prevalence during 2010-2019. During the COVID-19 epidemic, the seasonal HFMD epidemic peak was restrained, and the ARIMA analysis indicated that the COVID-19 intervention had mitigated EV transmission during the first COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. In addition, bivariate Spearman's cross-correlation coefficients were estimated for the major types CVA6, CVA16 and EV-A71. Our analyses indicated the possible existence of correlations among CVA6, CVA16 and EV-A71 prevalence in the epidemiological level.

Discussion: Taken together, the type distribution of HFMD has substantially changed over the last decade and CVA6 and CVA16 are currently the most predominant types co-circulating in Nanchang. The anti-COVID-19 NPIs significantly reduced the incidence of EV infections.