AI Article Synopsis
- The study analyzed the trend and regional disparities of hepatitis C incidence in Shandong Province, China, between 2004 and 2021, highlighting an increase in new cases over this period.
- The methodology involved predicting future incidence rates (2022-2030) using various statistical models, including ARIMA and LSTM.
- The findings indicate a peak incidence in 2019, some decline in 2020 and 2021, and an anticipated rise again by 2030, emphasizing the need for improved prevention and control strategies to combat hepatitis C.
Article Abstract
Background: Hepatitis C threatens human health and brings a heavy economic burden. Shandong Province is the second most populous province in China and has uneven regional economic development. Therefore, we analyzed the incidence rate trend and regional differences of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2021.
Methods: The monthly and annual incidence rates of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2030 were predicted by fitting Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combined model.
Results: From 2004 to 2021, annual new cases of hepatitis C in Shandong Province increased from 635 to 5834, with a total of 61,707 cases. The incidence rate increased from 0.69/100 thousand in 2004 to 6.40/100 thousand in 2019, with a slight decrease in 2020 and 2021. The average annual incidence rate was 3.47/100 thousand. In terms of regional distribution, the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province was generally high in the west and low in the east. It is estimated that the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province will be 9.21 per 100 thousand in 2030.
Conclusion: The hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend from 2004 to 2019 and a decreasing trend in 2020 and 2021. Significant regional variations in incidence rate existed. An upward trend in incidence rate is predicted from 2022 to 2030. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis C to achieve the goal of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107749 | DOI Listing |
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