Development of a multimodal kidney age prediction based on automatic segmentation CT image in patients with normal renal function.

Background: For decades, description of renal function has been of interest to clinicians and researchers. Serum creatinine (Scr) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are familiar but also limited in many circumstances. Meanwhile, the physiological volumes of the kidney cortex and medulla are presumed to change with age and have been proven to change with decreasing kidney function.

Methods: We recruited 182 patients with normal Scr levels between October 2021 and February 2022 in Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) with demographic and clinical data. A 3D U-Net architecture is used for both cortex and medullary separation, and volume calculation. In addition, we included patients with the same inclusion criteria but with diabetes (PUMCH-DM test set) and diabetic nephropathy (PUMCH-DN test set) for internal comparison to verify the possible clinical value of "kidney age" (K-AGE).

Results: The PUMCH training set included 146 participants with a mean age of 47.5 ± 7.4 years and mean Scr 63.5 ± 12.3 μmol/L. The PUMCH test set included 36 participants with a mean age of 47.1 ± 7.9 years and mean Scr 66.9 ± 13.0 μmol/L. The multimodal method predicted K-AGE approximately close to the patient's actual physiological age, with 92% prediction within the 95% confidential interval. The mean absolute error increases with disease progression (PUMCH 5.00, PUMCH-DM 6.99, PUMCH-DN 9.32).

Conclusion: We established a machine learning model for predicting the K-AGE, which offered the possibility of evaluating the whole kidney health in normal kidney aging and in disease conditions.