AI Article Synopsis
- Climate change is altering the distribution of venomous marine gastropods, particularly Conus geographus and C. textile, which can pose health risks to humans and offer potential pharmaceutical benefits.
- The study utilized Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict how these species may be affected by climate change in the Indo-Pacific region for the years 2050 and 2090, highlighting the importance of factors like Temperature and Primary Productivity.
- Projections indicate that while Southeast Asia and Micronesia will remain suitable for both species, C. geographus may thrive more, increasing human envenomation risks, whereas C. textile may decline, leading to a loss of its pharmacological potential.
Article Abstract
Climate change is affecting the distribution of marine organisms worldwide, including venomous marine gastropods that offer risks to human health, but also potential pharmacological resources, such as Conus sp. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting species distribution under climate change. The objective of our study was to evaluate the potential distribution of Conus geographus and C. textile in the Indo-Pacific region under different climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2090. We constructed SDMs with MaxEnt for each species, using bioclimatic variables from Bio-ORACLE and NOAA, and occurrence data from GBIF. We projected the best-fit model for the present and different future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). We obtained high accuracy SDMs for C. geographus and C. textile, with Temperature and Primary Productivity as the main explanatory variables. Our future projections reveal that both species may react differently to climate change. Southeast Asia and Micronesia will continue to provide a climatically appropriate environment for both species; however, they may become more suitable for C. geographus and less suitable for C. textile. This may lead to a higher risk of human envenomation by C. geographus, but a lower risk by C. textile. A decreased suitability for C. textile may also lead to the loss of potential pharmacological resources among its range. Our study emphasizes how SDMs can be used to assess the future distribution of species with human health implications, which can aid in the monitoring of venomous marine species.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106237 | DOI Listing |
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