Application of ADMS-Urban for an area with a high contribution of residential heating emissions - model verification and sensitivity study for PM.

Air pollution poses a significant risk to both human health and the environment in the contemporary world. Among the various pollutants, particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 μm (PM) is regarded as the most hazardous. It has been implicated in over four million global fatalities in 2019 alone. This research paper divulges the outcomes of modelling the spatial-temporal fluctuations of PM concentrations within the confines of Wroclaw, a city situated in Poland, Central Europe. The model's output was evaluated through comparison with collected data from two government-operated monitoring stations within the city. For this study, we used the ADMS-Urban model and tested two different sources of background data (low-cost sensors and the EMEP MSC-W atmospheric chemistry transport model). The statistical analysis conducted in the paper indicates that the model reproduces the temporal variability of PM. The conclusions from this research indicate that the average annual PM concentration within Wroclaw is 13.8 μg/m, with the concentration peaking in the month of March. The spatial distribution reveals the highest PM concentrations primarily in the southern and western zones of the city, with additional elevated concentrations observed sporadically throughout the city. The study unveils that 1.3 % of Wroclaw's area experiences PM concentrations exceeding the EU's annual limit of 20 μg/m. When considered in relation to the WHO's suggested annual average level of 5 μg/m, Wroclaw city experiences exceedances throughout. When background concentrations are excluded from the model, the annual average PM2.5 concentration across the city is noted to be reduced by >50 %. A thorough investigation of the city's emission structure, taking into account only emissions from the city without background, indicates that the residential sector contributes about 77.3 % of the total annual average PM concentration in Wroclaw. The transportation and industrial sectors account for nearly 19.5 % and 3.2 %, respectively.