How should uncertainty about upcoming painful procedures be communicated? An experimental study into highly uncertain pain predictions.

Objective: Uncertainty is unavoidable in the context of painful medical procedures. It is important to investigate the impact of different ways of communicating uncertainty on upcoming pain.

Methods: In our exploratory study, healthy participants (n = 30) were repeatedly presented with three highly uncertain pain predictions communicated by a hypothetical doctor. A direct statement of high uncertainty ("I don't know") was compared to more indirect predictions (social prediction: "It varies widely among people"; range prediction: "… not painful at all to very highly painful"), followed by individually calibrated electrical stimuli of non-, moderately, or very highly painful intensity.

Results: The direct expression of uncertainty led to the most intense pain sensation (for moderately painful stimuli only), lowest and most certain pain expectations, lowest trust in the hypothetical doctor, and lowest feeling of being well-informed, especially as compared to the social prediction. No differential effects on anxiety were observed.

Conclusions: Expressing high uncertainty indirectly, with reference to the common experiences of others, may be beneficial for optimizing pain experiences and enhancing patients' trust in a medical professional.

Practice Implications: Our findings inform on how high uncertainty about upcoming pain may impact patient and health outcomes, pointing to some advantages of indirect communication.