Factors associated with not undergoing surgery for locally advanced rectal cancers: An NCDB propensity-matched analysis.

Background: The traditional treatment paradigm for patients with locally advanced rectal cancers has been neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by curative intent surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. This study aimed to assess surgery trends for locally advanced rectal cancers, factors associated with forgoing surgery, and overall survival outcomes.

Methods: Adults with locally advanced rectal cancers were retrospectively analyzed using the National Cancer Database (2004-2019). Propensity score matching was performed. Factors associated with not undergoing surgery were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were used for 5-year overall survival analysis, stratified by stage and treatment type.

Results: A total of 72,653 patients were identified, with 64,396 (88.64%) patients undergoing neoadjuvant + surgery ± adjuvant therapy, 579 (0.80%) chemotherapy only, 916 (1.26%) radiation only, and 6,762 (9.31%) chemoradiation only. The proportion of patients who underwent surgery declined over the study period (95.61% in 2006 to 92.29% in 2019, P trend < .001), whereas the proportion of patients who refused surgery increased (1.45%-4.48%, P trend < .001). Factors associated with not undergoing surgery for locally advanced rectal cancers included older age, Black race (odds ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.35-1.60, P < .001), higher Charlson-Deyo score (score ≥3: 1.79, 1.58-2.04, P < .001), stage II cancer (1.22, 1.17-1.28, P < .001), lower median household income, and non-private insurance. Neoadjuvant + surgery ± adjuvant therapy was associated with the best 5-year overall survival, regardless of stage, in unmatched and matched cohorts.

Conclusion: Despite surgery remaining an integral component in the management of locally advanced rectal cancers, there is a concerning decline in guideline-concordant surgical care for rectal cancer in the United States, with evidence of persistent socioeconomic disparities. Providers should seek to understand patient perspectives/barriers and guide them toward surgery if appropriate candidates. Continued standardization, implementation, and evaluation of rectal cancer care through national accreditation programs are necessary to ensure that all patients receive optimal treatment.