Estimated risk of cardiovascular events and long-term complications: The projected future of diabetes patients in Delhi from the DEDICOM-II survey.

Problem: Despite high prevalence and ethnic susceptibility, limited published estimates are available on long term complication risks among known diabetes patients in India. Hence, we undertook evaluation of the cardiovascular risk of known diabetes patients from Delhi.

Methods: The community-survey was conducted using a probability-proportionate-to-size(systematic) 2-stage cluster design. Thirty areas were selected for a house-to-house survey to recruit 25 to 30 subjects (known diabetes ≥1 year; 35-65 years of age) per area. Scores from the UKPDS 2.1, UKPDS 2.0, Framingham, ASCVD, WHO, NHS and SCORE studies were used for 10-year risk calculation.

Results: We enrolled 843 subjects of which 800 consented for blood sampling. The mean age of the subjects was 53.0(52.1-54.0) years, the mean duration since diagnosis was 7.1(6.7-7.5) years, with 49.8 % women. 61.8 % were hypertensive, 81.5 % were dyslipidaemic and 53.3 % had poor glycaemic control. Although variable, risk engines estimates were consensual in projecting a high ten-year Coronary-Heart-Disease risk of 10-16 %, a stroke risk of 3.7-5.0 %, and a 5.0-5.7% risk of cardiovascular fatality. These risks were 1.5-3 times the 'risk at target levels' suggesting mitigability. Only 9.3 %, 16.0 %, and 30.0 % were taking aspirin, lipid lowering drugs and antihypertensives respectively.

Conclusion: The study highlights the impending impact of, and the scope for improvement in the cardiovascular risk profile of diabetes patients in Delhi, including the use of cardioprotective medications. It strengthens the case for developing and testing potential interventions for improvement.