Dynamic Prognostic Score to Predict Survival in East Asian Elderly Populations with Dysphagia.

Introduction: Dysphagia is a common disorder in older adults, leading to severe complications, including aspiration pneumonia, dehydration, malnutrition, weight loss, and even death. However, no prognostic model has been developed to predict the prognosis of older adults with dysphagia.

Methods: Data from patients with dysphagia at a single center were retrospectively reviewed between 2014 and 2017. All data were obtained from the Dryad Digital Repository. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to select potentially relevant features. Multiple Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to develop a model based on the training set.

Results: The nomogram comprised age, sex, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy, chronic heart failure, total lymphocyte count, daily calorie intake, and severe pneumonia, which provided favorable calibration and discrimination in the training dataset, with AUCs for the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival predictions of 0.833, 0.871, and 0.886, respectively. Furthermore, it showed acceptable discrimination in the validation cohort, with AUCs for the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival predictions of 0.884, 0.834, and 0.782, respectively. Moreover, the decision curve analysis results revealed that the nomogram was clinically beneficial.

Conclusion: A nomogram, combining seven demographic and clinical factors, provided an excellent preoperative prediction of survival probability in older individuals with dysphagia. This predictive model can be used as a reference to assist clinicians in making clinical decisions.