Multi-parameter MRI based radiomics nomogram for predicting telomerase reverse transcriptase promoter mutation and prognosis in glioblastoma.

Objective: To investigate the clinical utility of multi-parameter MRI-based radiomics nomogram for predicting telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutation status and prognosis in adult glioblastoma (GBM).

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed MRI and pathological data of 152 GBM patients. A total of 2,832 radiomics features were extracted and filtered from preoperative MRI images. A radiomics nomogram was created on the basis of radiomics signature (rad-score) and clinical traits. The performance of the nomogram in TERT mutation identification was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves. Pathologically confirmed TERT mutations and risk score-based TERT mutations were employed to assess patient prognosis, respectively.

Results: The random forest (RF) algorithm outperformed the other two algorithms, yielding the best diagnostic efficacy in differentiating TERT mutations, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.892 (95% CI: 0.828-0.956) and 0.824 (95% CI: 0.677-0.971) in the training set and validation sets, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive power of the radiomics nomogram constructed with the rad-score and clinical variables reached 0.916 (95%CI: 0.864, 0.968) in the training set and 0.880 (95%CI: 0.743, 1) in the validation set. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis findings further uphold the clinical application value of the radiomics nomogram. The overall survival of the high-risk subgroup was significantly shorter than that of the low-risk subgroup, which was consistent with the results of the pathologically confirmed TERT mutation group.

Conclusion: The radiomics nomogram could non-invasively provide promising insights for predicting TERT mutations and prognosis in GBM patients with excellent identification and calibration abilities.