[Estimation of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Emission Reduction Potential of Beijing During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period Under the Background of "Carbon Peak and Neutrality"].

To achieve the goal of "carbon peak and neutrality," the strict requirements for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions control in the agricultural sector were recommended in relevant plans for Beijing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Through collecting agricultural activity data and calculating and screening the emission factors, the amount and emission characteristics of agricultural GHG emissions in Beijing in 2020 were estimated and set as the baseline condition. On this basis, the GHG emissions in 2025 with optimized measurements implemented, which were selected in combination with the natural conditions and planting-breeding mode of Beijing, were set as the reduction condition. The emission reduction potential and its distribution during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period were predicted simultaneously. Meanwhile, the reduction effects on the GHG emissions of optimized measurements were evaluated. In addition, relevant policy recommendations on GHG reduction were proposed accordingly. The results revealed that the total agricultural GHG emissions in Beijing were estimated to be 456000 t (CO-eq) in 2020, primarily from sources of animal intestinal fermentation and manure management, with contribution rates of 50.7% and 26.7%, respectively. Spatially, it was mainly distributed in districts with large livestock and poultry breeding scales, such as Shunyi District, Miyun District, and Yanqing District, etc. It was predicted that in 2025, the total agricultural GHG emissions would be 349000 t (CO-eq), and the emission reduction potential in the 14th Five-Year Plan period would be 107000 t (CO-eq). Animal intestinal fermentation would be the emission source with the largest reduction potential (60000 tons, CO-eq), followed by the emission source of animal manure management (37000 tons, CO-eq). Adjusting fodder composition and optimizing manure management were analyzed to be the most effective optimized measurements for agricultural GHG emission reduction. Moreover, the emission reduction potential of CH would be greater than that of NO. The emission reduction potential would be mainly distributed in Miyun District, Shunyi District, Yanqing District, Fangshan District, Tongzhou District, and other suburbs with large livestock and poultry breeding scales, accounting for more than 10% of the total emission reduction potential for each. These regions with large emission reduction potential should be prioritized and then the assessments should be extended to the whole city. The measurements were recommended as follows:① the research and promotion of technologies such as fodder optimization and the efficient treatment of manure should be strengthened, ② the scope of the combination of planting and breeding model should be expanded to promote the development of circular agriculture, and ③ relevant standards, guidelines, and specifications for green and low-carbon agriculture should be formulated, and the regulatory and policy system for synergy reduction of agricultural pollution and GHG should be developed.