[Trends in the lifetime risk to be diagnosed with cancer in the Netherlands].

Objective: To describe for the Dutch population the lifetime risk to be diagnosed with or to die from cancer.

Design: The cancer incidence and death rates of 1990-2019 were analyzed by 5-year periods.

Method: For the calculations cancer incidence rates were used from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Population and mortality data were obtained from Statistics Netherlands. All rates were stratified according to gender and age groups. Using these rates, the lifetime risk of cancer or of dying from cancer were calculated using the software program DevCan.

Results: Compared to 1990, probabilities of being diagnosed with cancer increased by over ten percent points, to 54% for men and 47% for women. In the most recent period, the highest probabilities were for prostate cancer in men (13%), and breast cancer in women (14%). The lifetime risk of dying from cancer was comparably stable for all age groups combined, but decreased under 75 years (males) and 65 years (females), while it increased in the elderly.

Conclusion: During their lifetime, roughly half of all Dutch residents are diagnosed with cancer. The sharp increase in lifetime risk of diagnosis with cancer shows the need for additional efforts to aim at prevention of cancer.