Theoretical analysis reveals a role for RAF conformational autoinhibition in paradoxical activation.

RAF kinase inhibitors can, under certain conditions, increase RAF kinase signaling. This process, which is commonly referred to as 'paradoxical activation' (PA), is incompletely understood. We use mathematical and computational modeling to investigate PA and derive rigorous analytical expressions that illuminate the underlying mechanism of this complex phenomenon. We find that conformational autoinhibition modulation by a RAF inhibitor could be sufficient to create PA. We find that experimental RAF inhibitor drug dose-response data that characterize PA across different types of RAF inhibitors are best explained by a model that includes RAF inhibitor modulation of three properties: conformational autoinhibition, dimer affinity, and drug binding within the dimer (i.e., negative cooperativity). Overall, this work establishes conformational autoinhibition as a robust mechanism for RAF inhibitor-driven PA based solely on equilibrium dynamics of canonical interactions that comprise RAF signaling and inhibition.