An individual segmented trajectory approach for identifying opioid use patterns using longitudinal dispensing data.

Purpose: The aim of this study is to use electronic opioid dispensing data to develop an individual segmented trajectory approach for identifying opioid use patterns. The resulting opioid use patterns can be used for examining the association between opioid use and drug overdose.

Methods: We retrospectively assembled a cohort of members on long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) between January 1, 2006 and June 30, 2019 who were 18 years and older and enrolled in one of three health care systems in the US. We have developed an individual segmented trajectory analysis for identifying various opioid use patterns by scanning over the follow-up and finding distinct opioid use patterns based on variability measured with coefficient of variation and trends of milligram morphine equivalents levels.

Results: Among 31, 865 members who were on LTOT between January 1, 2006 and June 30, 2019, 58.3% were female, and the average age was 55.4 years (STD = 15.4). The study population had 152 557 person-years of follow-up, with an average follow-up of 4.4 years per enrollment per person (STD = 3.4). This novel approach identified up to 13 distinct patterns including 88 756 episodes of "stable" pattern (42.1%) with an average follow-up of 11.2 months, 29 140 episodes of "increasing" pattern (13.8%) with an average follow-up of 6.0 months, 13 201 episodes of ≤10% dose reduction (6.3%) with an average follow-up of 10.4 months, 7286 episodes of 11%-20% dose reduction (3.5%) with an average follow-up of 5.3 months, 4457 episodes of 21%-30% dose reduction (2.1%) with an average follow-up of 4.0 months, and 9903 episodes of >30% dose reduction (4.7%) with an average follow-up of 2.6 months.

Conclusions: A novel approach was developed to identify 13 distinct opioid use patterns using each individual's longitudinal dispensing data and these patterns can be used in examining overdose risk during the time that these patterns are ongoing.