Prediction of pulmonary metastasis in esophageal carcinoma patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules.

Background: Indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) are common after surgery for esophageal cancer. The paucity of data on postoperative IPNs for esophageal cancer causes a clinical dilemma.

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify the characteristics and clinical significance of IPNs after radical esophagectomy for metastatic esophageal cancer, determine the risk factors for pulmonary metastasis, and construct a risk score model to standardize the appropriate time to either follow up or treat the patient.

Methods: All consecutive patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent radical surgery between 2013 and 2016 were included in this retrospective study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors and develop risk score models.

Results: A total of 816 patients were enrolled in the study. During a median follow-up period of 45 months, IPNs were detected in 221 (27.1%) patients, of whom 66 (29.9%) were diagnosed with pulmonary metastases. The following five variables maintained prognostic significance after multivariate analyses: the pathologic N category, number of IPNs, shape of IPNs, time of detection of IPNs, and size of IPNs. The Pulmonary Metastasis Prediction Model (PMPM) scale ranges from 0 to 15 points, and patients with higher scores have a higher probability of pulmonary metastases. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good calibration performance of the clinical prediction model (χ = 8.573, P = 0.380). After validation, the PMPM scale showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.939.

Conclusion: A PMPM scale for IPNs in patients who underwent esophagectomy for ESCC may be clinically useful for diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making.