Opposite trends in incidence of breast cancer in young and old female cohorts in Hungary and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic: a nationwide study between 2011-2020.

Background: This nationwide study examined breast cancer (BC) incidence and mortality rates in Hungary between 2011-2019, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the incidence and mortality rates in 2020 using the databases of the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) and Central Statistical Office (CSO) of Hungary.

Methods: Our nationwide, retrospective study included patients who were newly diagnosed with breast cancer (International Codes of Diseases ICD)-10 C50) between Jan 1, 2011 and Dec 31, 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) were calculated using European Standard Populations (ESP).

Results: 7,729 to 8,233 new breast cancer cases were recorded in the NHIF database annually, and 3,550 to 4,909 all-cause deaths occurred within BC population per year during 2011-2019 period, while 2,096 to 2,223 breast cancer cause-specific death was recorded (CSO). Age-standardized incidence rates varied between 116.73 and 106.16/100,000 PYs, showing a mean annual change of -0.7% (95% CI: -1.21%-0.16%) and a total change of -5.41% (95% CI: -9.24 to -1.32). Age-standardized mortality rates varied between 26.65-24.97/100,000 PYs (mean annual change: -0.58%; 95% CI: -1.31-0.27%; p=0.101; total change: -5.98%; 95% CI: -13.36-2.66). Age-specific incidence rates significantly decreased between 2011 and 2019 in women aged 50-59, 60-69, 80-89, and ≥90 years (-8.22%, -14.28%, -9.14%, and -36.22%, respectively), while it increased in young females by 30.02% (95%CI 17,01%- 51,97%) during the same period. From 2019 to 2020 (in first COVID-19 pandemic year), breast cancer incidence nominally decreased by 12% (incidence rate ratio [RR]: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.69-1.13; 2020 vs. 2019), all-cause mortality nominally increased by 6% (RR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.79-1.43) among breast cancer patients, and cause-specific mortality did not change (RR: 1.00; 95%CI: 0.86-1.15).

Conclusion: The incidence of breast cancer significantly decreased in older age groups (≥50 years), oppositely increased among young females between 2011 and 2019, while cause-specific mortality in breast cancer patients showed a non-significant decrease. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a nominal, but not statistically significant, 12% decrease in breast cancer incidence, with no significant increase in cause-specific breast cancer mortality observed during 2020.