Mathematical models to predict the lamb weight at birth and at weaning reared in the tropical warm-climate pasture.

Our objective was to evaluate the productive parameters of ewes and their lambs in relation to ewe age and to develop models for predicting lamb weight at birth and weaning in a tropical warm-climate pasture. Individual data were collected from 273 ewes and 273 lambs, between 2013 and 2021. During this period all animals were kept on pastures of Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu All lambs in the experiments were supplemented in creep-feeding. A descriptive statistical analysis was performed using the PROC SUMMARY procedure in SAS (SAS University Edition, SAS Institute Inc. Cary, CA, USA). Pearson correlation coefficients between variables were estimated using the PROC CORR procedure in SAS (SAS University Edition, SAS Institute Inc. Cary, CA, USA). Model adjustments and variable selection were performed using PROC REG in SAS (SAS University Edition, SAS Institute Inc. Cary, CA, USA). The STEPWISE option and Mallow's C(p) were used to select the variables included in the equations. Outliers were identified by evaluating the studentized residuals based on the predicted values from the equations. Residual analysis was predicted by regression minus observed values and those that fell outside the range of -2.5 to 2.5 were removed. Several statistics were used to assess the predictability of the equations, including the coefficients of determination (r) and mean standard error (RMSE). The average ewe age at lambing was 3.4 ± 1.7 years, with an average weight of 56.9 ± 8,9 kg and average body condition score (BCS) of 2,4 ± 0.8 points. The average ewe age at weaning was 51.1 ± 7.9, with average BCS of 1.8 ± 0.8 points. The average lamb at birthing was 3.9 ± 0.9 kg. The average lamb at weaning was 21.0 ± 4.9, with daily gain of 0.2 ± 0.1 kg/day and total gain of 17.1 ± 4.7 kg birth to weaning. The lamb produced by ewe at lambing was 5.3 ± 1.7 kg/ewe. The lamb weaned by ewe at weaning was 28.7 ± 10.8 kg/ewe. The ratios of lamb produced per ewe at birth and at weaning were 0.1 ± 0.03 and 0.6 ± 0.2, respectively. The lamb's birth weight showed a positive linear relationship with the age of the ewe, increasing by 115 g per year of age. The regression equations adjusted for ewe age had maximum points ranging from 4.2 to 5.2, occurring at average age of 4,7 years. The other characteristics showed a quadratic tendency. The results suggest the culling of ewes at five years of age to generate lambs with ideal weight at birth and at weaning raised in warm tropical pastures.