The terms susceptibility, exposure, infectiousness, and recovered all have some inherent ambiguity because different population members have different susceptibility levels, exposure levels, infectiousness levels, and recovery patterns. This uncertainty becomes more pronounced when examining population subgroups characterized by distinct behaviors, cultural norms, and varying degrees of resilience across different age brackets, thereby introducing the possibility of fluctuations. There is a need for more accurate models that take into account the various levels of susceptibility, exposure, infectiousness, and recovery of the individuals. A fuzzy SEIR model of the dynamics of the measles disease is discussed in this article. The rates of disease transmission and recovery are treated as fuzzy sets. Three distinct numerical approaches, the forward Euler, fourth-order Runge-Kutta, and nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) are employed for the resolution of this fuzzy SEIR model. Next, the outcomes of the three methods are examined. The results of the simulation demonstrate that the NSFD method adeptly portrays convergent solutions across various time step sizes. Conversely, the conventional Euler and RK-4 methods only exhibit positivity and convergence solutions when handling smaller step sizes. Even when considering larger step sizes, the NSFD method maintains its consistency, showcasing its efficacy. This demonstrates the NSFD technique's superior reliability when compared to the other two methods, while maintaining all essential aspects of a continuous dynamical system. Additionally, the results from numerical and simulation studies offer solid proof that the suggested NSFD technique is a reliable and effective tool for controlling these kinds of dynamical systems.The convergence and consistency analysis of the NSFD method are also studied.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42953-x | DOI Listing |
PLoS One
January 2025
Natural Energy Research Center Co., Ltd (NERC), Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan.
We have carried out spectral analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) notifications in all 47 prefectures in Japan. The results confirm that the power spectral densities (PSDs) of the data from each prefecture show exponential characteristics, which are universally observed in the PSDs of time series generated by nonlinear dynamical systems, such as the susceptible/exposed/infectious/recovered (SEIR) epidemic model. The exponential gradient increases with the population size.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPathogens
December 2024
Department of Pathobiological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
are indoor-dwelling vectors of many arboviruses, including Zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV). The dynamics of these viruses within the mosquito are known to be temperature-dependent, and models that address risk and predictions of the transmission efficiency and patterns typically use meteorological temperature data. These data do not differentiate the temperatures experienced by mosquitoes in different microclimates, such as indoor vs.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFHeliyon
December 2024
Department of Mathematics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious transboundary viral disease of small ruminants with significant economic implications caused by the Peste des Petits Ruminants virus. This study employs mathematical modeling to investigate the impact of imperfect PPR vaccines and restocked small ruminants on the transmission dynamics of PPR. A deterministic mathematical model is developed by incorporating vaccinated and restocked subpopulations into the classical SEIR model.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFFront Public Health
January 2025
College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China.
Introduction: A well-connected transportation network unites localities but also accelerates the transmission of infectious diseases. Subways-an important aspect of daily travel in big cities-are high-risk sites for the transmission of urban epidemics. Intensive research examining the transmission mechanisms of infectious diseases in subways is necessary to ascertain the risk of disease transmission encountered by commuters.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFComput Biol Med
January 2025
Department of Industrial Engineering, Izmir University of Economics, Izmir, 35330, Türkiye. Electronic address:
Background: The severity of recent Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemics has revealed the importance of development of inoculation strategies in case of limited vaccine availability. Authorities have implemented inoculation strategies based on perceived risk factors such as age and existence of other chronic health conditions for survivability from the disease. However, various other factors can be considered for identifying the preferred inoculation strategies depending on the vaccine availability and disease spread levels.
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