Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities.

Introduction: This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies.

Methods: We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealth:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population.

Results: Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts.

Conclusions: The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.