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The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • This study examines how the Brazilian National Oral Health Policy (NOHP) has impacted oral cancer mortality rates (OCMR) from 1996 to 2019 using statistical analysis of mortality data.
  • The results show an increase in OCMR in the North region and a decrease in the Southeast, indicating the policy's varied effectiveness across Brazil's regions.
  • The conclusion stresses that the NOHP isn't reducing OCMR effectively and suggests improvements in the oral health care network, including prevention and early treatment for oral cancer.

Article Abstract

Objective: This study analyzes the effect of the Brazilian National Oral Health Policy (NOHP) on oral cancer mortality rates (OCMR).

Method: This is an ecological study with secondary oral cancer death data, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Annual death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (1996-2019). The outcome was the OCMR, standardized by gender and age We considered the NOHP, categorized as "0" (before its implementation), from 1996 to 2004, and "1 to 15", from 2005 to 2019. ARIMA modeling was carried out for temporal analysis, and regression coefficient estimation (RC).

Results: The Brazilian NOHP implementation was associated with an increase in OCMR in the North region (CR = 0.16; p = 0.022) and with a decrease in the Southeast region (CR = -0.04; p<0.001), but did not affect the other macro-regions nor Brazil. The forecast models estimated an increase in OCMR for the North, and Northeast, a decrease for the Southeast, and stability for the South and Brazil.

Conclusion: The Brazilian NOHP is not being effective in reducing the OCMR. The trends behaved differently in the Brazilian territory, highlighting health inequities. We recommend that the NOHP strengthen the oral health care network, incorporating oral cancer as a notifiable disease, adopting strategies for prevention, screening, and providing opportunities for early treatment of the disease.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10513197PMC
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0291609PLOS

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